Thursday, May 21, 2015

Neobux Rented Referral Strategy

Renting referrals plays a large part of being a member at Neobux. It’s almost like managing a small business, but thankfully way easier! Think of your rented referrals as “employees”. When one of your employees is not pulling his/her weight (not clicking on enough ads) – it’s time to let them go and hire a replacement (or in Neobux terms “Recycle” that rented referral). That’s pretty much all there is to it, now all we need is a strategy to optimize managing our rented referrals!

Associated Costs and Break Even Points

Let’s first work on some basic numbers. As you would imagine, when you let an employee go, you have to pay a little severance pay. In Neobux terms, this is a fixed cost at $0.07 per referral you choose to recycle. There are 3 ways you can recycle a referral:
  • Pay $0.07 from your rental balance
  • Use NeoPoints to pay for the recycle, at a current cost of 92 NeoPoints per referral
  • Allow them to auto recycle after 14 days of inactivity at no cost
If you are new to Neobux and have only a handful of rented referrals, NeoPoints can be a great way to recycle. When you acquire more than say 50 rented referrals though, it becomes quite difficult to amass the NeoPoints required. The most common way of recycling referrals is to pay the $0.07 from your rental balance.
Tip: I would not recommend letting any inactive referral auto recycle. The reason being, you can recover the $0.07 in 1 or 2 days, instead of losing 14 days of potential revenue.×
Now for the break even points. These will vary based on how many rented referrals and what type of membership you have. This strategy will focus on standard and golden memberships:


Revenue per Click BE Clicks Per Day*
Referrals Cost Monthly Standard Golden Standard Golden
0 -> 250 $0.2000 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.33 0.67
251 -> 500 $0.2100 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.40 0.70
501 -> 750 $0.2200 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.47 0.73
751 -> 1000 $0.2300 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.53 0.77
1001 -> 1250 $0.2400 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.60 0.80
1251 -> 1500 $0.2500 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.67 0.83
1501 -> 1750 $0.2600 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.73 0.87
more than 1750 $0.2700 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.80 0.90
*Ignores any AutoPay and AutoRenew discounts.

Developing a Rented Referral Strategy

Now we know our costs, and how productive our “employees” need to be to make our business profitable, we can develop a rented referral strategy to optimize revenue. We need to find a midpoint between:
  • Recycling too much – spending too much on recycling can destroy our profits
  • Recycling too little – allowing our clicks p/day to fall too low will put us in the red too
Firstly, you have to understand that any rented referral strategy is going to be more successful some days than others. Why? Because you are applying a static strategy to a dynamic environment. Not everyone is going to click 4 ads for the first 5 days, then 3 ads the next 10 days slowly decrementing to zero.
What we can do, is play the probability game to keep our revenue positive. The following bullets act as a good starting point when developing your rented referral strategy – you can tweak them as you seem fit, but they have kept me in the positive even as a standard member where break even points are considerably higher:
  • Recycle any inactive referral that hasn’t clicked in 4-5 days. Probabilities are high that the referral has lost interest. I have seen apparently inactive referrals bounce back to life after 3 days and be generally good clickers. Even employees need a little break from time to time!
This one’s easy to workout in your Neobux Dashboard. Login and click on “rented” in the menu on the left to bring up your list of rented referrals. You can click on “Last Click” at the top to sort by time of last click:

I have a lot of “No clicks yet” because I just rented yesterday. Scroll down until you see the first date:

I would recycle the one highlighted in yellow as this one has been inactive for 5 days.
  • Never recycle a referral that is above your break even point. I know, it’s tempting to bring your average up, but you could recycle and get an inactive referral, or one that performs worse. This is one of those times where people are too aggressive with recycling rented referrals, and a popular way of eating up profit with needless recycling.
  • Recycle any referral that falls below 20% of your break even point and that has been a referral for at least 10 days. Weed out the low performers that are losing you money!
This one requires a little elaboration. This time you will sort by average, and find the referrals that are below your break even – this varies based on your number of referrals and membership level. Fortunately, the first step in this rented referral strategy will ween out most of these, this one acts as a “double-check” to make sure we don’t miss any low performers.

I’m in good shape! Apart from the referrals yet to click, my lowest average clicks per day are 1.5. My employees are doing great!
  • Recycle daily if possible to ensure we are not leaving referrals that should be recycled any longer than necessary in our account – and missing out on revenue from a new rented referral.

Calculating Profit

There’s no point to having a rented referral strategy if we don’t attempt to gauge how successful it is. To calculate accurately profit we need to take into account AutoPay and AutoRenew. As you know, when we use both of these features, we lower the cost of the referral per month.
First we need to figure out how much the referral actually costs. This can get a little complex. Say for example if you have AutoPay on at a 15% discount and AutoRenew on at a 5% discount. Some referrals may renew with a 5% discount, some might click ads and invoke a 15% discount. Trying to figure the math and how to pull the info from Neobux can give you headaches!
So, here’s what I do. I use AutoPay so I’m guaranteed a 15% discount when someone clicks an ad. I typically manually renew referrals if and when their rental period remaining gets down to 5 days or so. I recycle for 90 days which gets me an 18% discount. I do have AutoRenew set just in case I miss a referral. Never let a referral expire!
Bottom line is, I am guaranteed at least a 15% discount on the base break evens – so a 15% discount is what I take into account when determining profit. Let’s look at a practical example.
One other point I want to stress, one way or another, you re going to incur a cost for a full days rental for every rented referral you have regardless of if they click or not. Let’s explain this by understanding what happens if a referral clicks, and if they don’t. This assumes AutoPay is turned on which I’m sure it is, right? :
  • If a rented referral clicks – you pay for that days rental via AutoPay
  • If a rented referral does not click – you pay for that days rental, because you lose a days rental
A lot of people just look at the AutoPay value and subtract this, but this does not take into account the renewal fee that is going to hit when the referral expires, assuming you either manually recycle or have AutoRenew switched on, which is advised since you don’t want to lose rented referrals, particularly if you are a Golden member.
The initial purchase of referrals I treat as a “Capital Cost”. As such, I calculate my break evens on the costs going forward, which use the AutoPay and AutoRenew discounts. In accounting terms, I’m not calculating my ROI, but daily operating profits going forward. Let’s put all this together into a practical example:
Let’s say I am a standard member with 300 rented referrals. My average ads clicked from rented referrals at the end of the day is 2.0. I recycled 5 referrals today. So how much money did I make?
Revenue is simple. Average clicks per referral x  rented referrals x revenue per click
2.0 x 300 x $0.005 = $3.00 My expenses are: AutoPay or AutoRenew rate applied to all rented referrals (15%/18% – I use 15% to be conservative) + Recycle fees
(300 x $0.0057) + (5 x $0.07) = $2.05 Total Profit = $0.95.
Out of interest, if I were a golden member, my profit would be double as my revenue per click doubles while all other variables remain constant – $1.90.
My math is spot on, but let’s make sure. Here is the break even points with AutoPay and AutoRenew discounts applied:



Revenue per Click BE Clicks Per Day
Referrals Cost Monthly After AutoPay/Renew Standard Golden Standard Golden
0 -> 250 $0.2000 $0.1700 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.13 0.57
251 -> 500 $0.2100 $0.1785 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.19 0.60
501 -> 750 $0.2200 $0.1870 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.25 0.62
751 -> 1000 $0.2300 $0.1955 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.30 0.65
1001 -> 1250 $0.2400 $0.2040 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.36 0.68
1251 -> 1500 $0.2500 $0.2125 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.42 0.71
1501 -> 1750 $0.2600 $0.2210 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.47 0.74
more than 1750 $0.2700 $0.2295 $0.0050 $0.0100 1.53 0.77
What I’m saying here, is that for this particular example – by break even point (ignoring recycle fees) is when my rented referrals click an average of 1.13 clicks per day. Let’s see if this balances.
  • Revenue = 300 x 1.13 x 0.005 = $1.7
  • Expenses = 300 x 0.0057 = $1.71
Some small rounding difference makes up the penny difference here, but we balance. Again, remember we are ignoring recycling fees here, this is just to check our AutoPay/AutoRenew discounts are being properly accounted for.




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AutoPay, AutoRenew and Recycling

AutoPay, AutoRenew and Recycling are the 3 costs associated with renting referrals in Neobux. You have to fully understand the concepts of each in order to make a decent return from renting referrals. This guide will dig into the details of each cost and I will also share with you how I utilize all 3.
Before I jump into the explanations, familiarize yourself with the cost of renting through Neobux, as these costs are in someway related to the AutoPay and AutoRenew discounts:
Number of RRs 30-Day Cost
0 -> 250 $0.2000
251 -> 500 $0.2100
501 -> 750 $0.2200
751 -> 1000 $0.2300
1001 -> 1250 $0.2400
1251 -> 1500 $0.2500
1501 -> 1750 $0.2600
more than 1750 $0.2700

AutoPay

AutoPay is the most complex of the 3 costs, so we’ll start here. Every day that one of you rented referrals clicks on an ad, you pay an AutoPay fee – which extends the rental period of that referral by one day. The cost of that day’s extension is discounted by 15%.
For example, consulting the table above, if you had 550 rented referrals – your 30 day rental cost on each referral would be $0.22. (550 falls between the 501 and 750 limits). If AutoPay is switched on, you will be charged $0.22/30 less 15% ($0.0062) for each rented referral that clicks on at least 1 advertisement. This will extend their rental period by 1 day. This cost is decremented from your rental balance.
The following table is much like the one above, but shows corresponding AutoPay costs to number of referrals – which is a flat 15% regardless of how many RRs you have.
Number of Referrals 30-Day Cost AutoPay Cost
0 -> 250 $0.2000 $0.0057
251 -> 500 $0.2100 $0.0060
501 -> 750 $0.2200 $0.0062
751 -> 1000 $0.2300 $0.0065
1001 -> 1250 $0.2400 $0.0068
1251 -> 1500 $0.2500 $0.0071
1501 -> 1750 $0.2600 $0.0074
more than 1750 $0.2700 $0.0077

Turning AutoPay On/Off

It’s very easy to switch AutoPay on and off. Login to your Neobux account and click on the rented referral icon at the top right of your dashboard:

Simply click on AutoPay in the rented referral screen to turn off, click again to turn on:

Should I Enable or Disable AutoPay?

Different people have different opinions on this. If you remember, AutoPay attracts a 15% discount. When we look at AutoRenew, we will see discounts up to 30%. Based on this, many people suggest turning AutoPay off and AutoRenew on for at least 90 days, where the AutoRenew discount becomes bigger than the AutoPay discount. I disagree.
Until the point I am happy with the number of rented referrals I have, and they are all set to AutoRenew at 240 days, I will keep AutoPay on. I currently have AutoRenew set at 150 days (a 25% discount), so why have AutoPay turned on at a lower 15% discount? Well, the nice thing about AutoPay is that it helps smooth out when renewal payments are due. Let’s look at the following graph from my Neobux dashboard to explain:

I just rented 55 referrals through the express queue – that’s the big spike you see in the graph above. What happens if I turn AutoPay off? All 55 RRs will renew at the exact same time, which at $0.79 each, comes out to $43.45! What happens if I don’t have at least $43.45 in my rental balance (or secondarily in my main balance) – I lose referrals!
AutoPay helps smooth out renewal payments because it only extends rental periods if that RR clicks at least one ad. Not every RR is going to click the same day, thus not every RR will be extended each day – so you get a staggering effect which helps break up the points when the next renewal payment is due.
Now look to the left of that spike. There’s still a couple of days where I will need to make sure I have enough funds to cover the renewals on 20 or so referrals, but nowhere close to 55. This to me, is the main benefit of AutoPay.
Remember! AutoPay is automatically disabled for any RRs that have 20 days or less remaining of their rental period.
Furthermore, the affect on my break-even point is relatively minimal. Suppose 40% of my RRs click at least one ad, I have AutoPay turned on and AutoRenew at 150 days – my break even point is 0.538. With AutoPay turned off, it is 0.5. My break even point is lower if I turn AutoPay off because the discount on 150 days AutoRenew is higher than the AutoPay discount – so I would assume the higher discount on all referrals.
However, the risk of losing referrals through insufficient funds is much higher with AutoPay turned off, as such my AutoPay setting is staying enabled!

AutoRenew

We touched a little on AutoRenew above. As AutoPay, it is a discounted cost in relation to the renewal of your rented referrals. However, it is not a daily cost like AutoPay – the cost is charged up front based on a chosen number of renewal days – 15, 30, 60, 90, 150 and 240. The longer you renew for, the higher the discount to renew per referral:
15 days 30 days 60 days 90 days 150 days 240 days
0% 5% 10% 18% 25% 30%
You also have the option of choosing how many days before the RR expires to apply the AutoRenew payment. You can choose between 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 days before expiration. There is no cost advantage to choosing to renew at a greater number of days before the RR expires, so I have this set to 3 days.

Turning AutoRenew On/Off

You access AutoRenew settings in the same place as AutoPay settings, again clicking on it to enable or disable. When you enable, you have the options of setting the AutoRenew length of time, as well as how many days before the expiration of a RR the renewal should be made:

Planning for AutoRenew Costs

It’s very easy to just set this to 240 days because you want the biggest discount on your rented referrals, but bear in mind the costs for extending the rental period of a referral:

 AutoRenew Period
Number of RRs 15 Days 30 days 60 days 90 days 150 days 240 days
0 -> 250 $0.1000 $0.1900 $0.3600 $0.4920 $0.7500 $1.1200
251 -> 500 $0.1050 $0.1995 $0.3780 $0.5166 $0.7875 $1.1760
501 -> 750 $0.1100 $0.2090 $0.3960 $0.5412 $0.8250 $1.2320
751 -> 1000 $0.1150 $0.2185 $0.4140 $0.5658 $0.8625 $1.2880
1001 -> 1250 $0.1200 $0.2280 $0.4320 $0.5904 $0.9000 $1.3440
1251 -> 1500 $0.1250 $0.2375 $0.4500 $0.6150 $0.9375 $1.4000
1501 -> 1750 $0.1300 $0.2470 $0.4680 $0.6396 $0.9750 $1.4560
more than 1750 $0.1350 $0.2565 $0.4860 $0.6642 $1.0125 $1.5120
So, if I am new to Neobux, and I rent my first 50 referrals (at a cost of $10) with the intent of renewing at 240 days – I would need $56 (50 x 1.12) in my rental or main balance to cover the extensions!
It is not realistic to expect a $10 investment to grow to over $50 in a 30 day period – however, many Neobux users make this mistake, and set their AutoRenew period at an unrealistic point based on their profit points. If you do not have sufficient funds in your account, you lose the referrals.
If you are planning to AutoRenew at anything above 30 days, make sure you have enough funds to cover the upcoming costs. It is very easy to see when your payments are due based on the bottom graph in your statistics page, which shows you how many referrals are up for renewal in how many days:

My AutoRenew Settings

Currently I am trying to get all my RRs to renew at 150 days. I am having to introduce new capital because I am also renting more referrals. This is something I plan for and know how much it is going to cost ahead of time.
After all my RRs renew at 150 days, I will switch it to 240 days, and most probably turn AutoPay off, as I will be relatively happy with the number of RRs I have.
Planning ahead and making good use of the statistical resources Neobux provides is very important. Many people only look at how many clicks their referrals made today, oblivious to upcoming costs or absent from any strategy to control those costs. As such, they either find themselves having to introduce new capital or end up quitting Neobux – an unfortunate result that could easily be avoided.

Recycling

Recycling is the easiest cost associated with renting referrals to understand, but perhaps the most debatable of how and when to apply. Recycling (in Neobux lingo) refers to replacing an inactive rented referral with a different, hopefully more active rented referral. The cost to recycle a referral depends on your membership but is typically $0.07. Emerald and Platinum members are charged $0.06, while Ultimate members are charged just $0.04.

When to Recycle a Referral

This is a tough question to answer. Neobux is a dynamic environment so to apply a static recycling strategy would not make sense. Some days you will recycle more, some days less. If you recycle too much, your profits will be eaten up by recycling fees. If you recycle too little, you will be burdened with a rented referral base of inactive clickers, and your profits will drop.
We need to find a balance between the two scenarios highlighted above. Here are some general tips:
  • Recycle Regularly – there’s no point in keeping inactive referrals and delaying their recycle by days – only to spend the same amoun recycling them – when you could have an active RR for those days if inactivity.
  • Give your RR’s a chance – not everyone clicks everyday - the below RR has times where one of my RRs has not clicked for 2 days, but is still generating me 2.6 clicks on average per day, way above my break-even of 0.529. Recycle on a case by case basis.

  • All inactive referrals are automatically replaced after 14 days of inactivity. I would advise not waiting until that point. Recycle any referral that hasn’t clicked in at least 7 days. That’s 7 days click revenue you can be earning before the 14 day inactivity period.
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